The history of human folly is replete
with belief in spurious causes, and I shall not try to adduce detailed
examples. Perhaps my favorite, and one of the most enduring examples, is the
belief in astrology. What is interesting about the better ancient defenses of
astrology is that the defenses begin on sound empirical grounds, but quickly
wander into extrapolations that are unwarranted und that would provide upon
deeper investigation excellent examples of spurious causes. Ptolemy's treatise
on astrology Tetrabiblos begins with sensible examples of the seasons,
the weather, and the tides being influenced by the motions of the sun end the
moon, but then moves rapidly to the examination of what may be determined about
the temperament und fortunes of a given individual. He proceeds to give
genuinely fantastic explanstions of the cultural characteristics of entire
nations on the basis of their relation to the stars. Consider, for example,
this passage:
| . . . Of these same countries Britain,
(Transalpine) Gaul, Germany, und Bastarnia are in closer familiarity with Aries
und Mars. Therefore for the most part their inhabitants are fiercer, more
headstrong, und bestial. But Italy, Apulia, (Cisalpine) Gaul, and Sicily have
their familiarity with Leo und the sun; wherefore these peoples are more
masterful, benevolent, und co-operative. |
Patrick Suppes: Probabilistic
Metaphysics. Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University, 1974, S. 48 |