Das Kausalgesetz, wonach jedes Ereignis
eine Ursache hat, und dabei gilt: gleiche Ursache gleiche Wirkung, und das
Induktionsprinzip, mit dem von einzelnen Beobachtungen verallgemeinert wird,
wurden von David Hume in Frage gestellt.
Matters of fact, which are the second
objects of human reason, are not ascertained in the same manner; nor is our
evidence of their truth, however great, of a like nature with the foregoing.
The contrary of every matter of fact is still possible; because it can never
imply a contradiction, and is conceived by the mind with the same facility and
distinctness, as if ever so conformable to reality. That the sun will not rise
tomorrow is no less intelligible a proposition, and implies no more
contradiction than the affirmation, that it will rise. David Hume: An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, IV.
Sceptical Doubts concerning the Operations of the Understanding - Part I ,
21 |
"For all inferences from experience suppose, as their
foundation, that the future will resemble the past, and that similar powers
will be conjoined with similar sensible qualities. If there be any suspicion
that the course of nature may change, and that the past may be no rule for the
future, all experience becomes useless, and can give rise to no inference or
conclusion. It is impossible, therefore, that any arguments from experience can
prove this resemblance of the past to the future, since all these arguments are
founded on the supposition of that resemblance." Hume:
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding - Chapter on Cause and
Effect.Part II. |
We may observe in human nature a
principle which, if strictly examined, will be found to diminish extremely the
assurance, which we might, from human testimony, have, in any kind of prodigy.
The maxim, by which we commonly conduct ourselves in our reasonings, is, that
the objects, of which we have no experience, resemble those, of which we have;
that what we have found to be most usual is always most probable; and that
where there is an opposition of arguments, we ought to give the preference to
such as are founded on the greatest number of past observations. Hume:
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, X. Of Miracles - Part II ,
93 |
[The] principle,that instances, of which we have had no
experience, must resemble those, of which we have had experience, and that the
course of nature continues always uniformly the same. Hume:
A Treatise of Human Nature 1.3.6 |
First we may observe, that the
supposition, that the future resembles the past, is not founded on arguments of
any kind, but is derived entirely from habit, by which we are determined to
expect the future the same train of objects, to which we have been
accustomed. Hume: A Treatise of Human Nature Sect.
XII. Of the Probability of Causes |
Whether the future will resemble the past is a contingent
matter of fact. The supposition that the future resembles the past, is not
founded on arguments of any kind, but is derived entirely from habit. (David
Hume, 1737) Hume: Enquiries Concerning The
Human Understanding and Concerning The Principles of Morals,
1737 |
Dem Kausalgesetz und dem Induktionsprinzip liegt als Annahme die
Gleichförmigkeit der Natur zugrunde. Dieses allgemeinere Prinzip der Gleichförmigkeit der Natur sagt,
daß die Naturgesetze universell gelten, sowohl räumlich als auch
zeitlich und es läßt erwarten, daß beobachtete Phänomene
sich auch künftig so ereignen werden wie bisher. Dieses Prinzip setzt die
Induktion schon voraus, ist also zirkulär. Das Prinzip der
Gleichförmigkeit der Natur tritt in verschiedenen Ausprägungen
auf. Die Gleichförmigkeit der Natur lässt sich aber empirisch
nicht rechtfertigen. Nach Hume ist es eine Gewöhnung des Menschen, der
dazu neigt eine Kausalität anzunehmen und der erwartet, das
zukünftige Ereignisse den bereits beobachteten gleich oder zumindest
ähnlich sind ("the future will resemble the past"). John Stuart Mill und Immanuel Kant griffen die Frage nach der
Rechtfertigung dieses Prinzips wieder auf. In einem transzendentalen Argument
zeigte Kant, daß das Prinzip der Gleichförmigkeit der Natur und der
Kausalität notwendig ist, damit Erfahrung überhaupt ermöglicht
wird. Bertrand Russell gab das folgende schlagende Beispiel gegen die
Induktion.
| "We know that all these rather crude
expectations of uniformity are liable to be misleading. The man who has fed the
chicken every day throughout its life at last wrings its neck instead, showing
that more refined views as to the uniformity of nature would have been useful
to the chicken." Bertrand Russell: The Problems of
Philosophy VI On Induction |
Karl Popper stimmt Hume zu: die
Induktion lässt sich nicht rechtfertigen. Er geht einen Schritt weiter:
die Wissenschaft braucht die Induktion nicht. |